A brief clip of Vladimir Putin issuing a rather mundane holiday greeting has become an unexpected turning point in his decades-long rule—and sources say it may mark the beginning of his undoing.
The Russian president’s health has long been closely guarded, so much so that it’s actually considered a state secret, and officials risk treason charges if they dare leak any information about it.
That’s why Russians were shocked to hear that an unedited video of Putin was shared on the Kremlin’s own Telegram channel last week, showing him coughing and choking on his own words. Although it was quickly replaced by a cleaned-up version, word quickly spread of the revealing clip.
In it, Putin was paying tribute to Russian women to mark International Women’s Day when he began coughing, suddenly pointed at his throat, and said with a pained grimace, “It’s sore.” That was the most pitiful image of the Russian leader the public had ever seen in his 25-year rule. The macho leader known for shirtless horseback riding, Judo photo ops, and ice hockey was suddenly just an old man stumbling on his words.
While many assumed whoever was responsible for the video would be swiftly punished, Putin’s spokesman played down the impact of the clip, calling it a “mistake” that wouldn’t happen again.
But when the Daily Beast asked Putin’s former adviser, an attorney of state treason cases, an ex-lawmaker, and a leading corruption investigator if the leak was a mere “mistake,” they had a very different take.
Several government agencies are tasked with ensuring no such mistakes occur, including the presidential administration and the security services.
“There are at least two Kremlin’s towers working on Putin’s public appearances; one information tower is under a long-time propaganda supervisor and the other is responsible for Putin’s image,” Ilya Shumanov, a board member of Transparency International Russia, told the Daily Beast.
“It’s possible that the towers are at war, we’ve seen constant interagency tensions, arrests of senior bureaucrats, generals, military commanders. One tower might be demonstrating the other tower’s inability to control Putin.”
That internal feuding may be intensifying in light of Putin’s dwindling popularity. U.S. actions in Venezuela and Iran have only made the traditionally strongman leader appear helpless as the Kremlin watches longtime allies get toppled.
“It is a new world in which Putin does nothing to help his closest partners like Maduro and Khamenei, failing his responsibility,” Shumanov told the Daily Beast.
This new world in which Donald Trump is on every front page and Putin is not even mentioned has been confusing to the Russian leadership. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov all but admitted as much in candid comments last week, telling reporters: “We are rapidly losing the instruments of our propaganda abroad, especially in the neighboring countries.”
In the wake of an uproar over the leaked video, Putin cancelled his trip to Astana, along with his meetings with Kazakh and Belarusian leaders planned from March 11 to 13, and he has not appeared in public since March 8. In a video of Putin meeting with the government last week, his voice sounded quiet and weak. By Friday afternoon, it had only 13,000 views on the Kremlin’s official Telegram channel.
Back when nobody knew who Putin was, a group of political consultants worked to create an image of a strong man who didn’t say much but acted instead. Marat Gelman, who was part of that group, was asked how that tough guy image could suddenly decline to one of an elderly man. “Interest in Putin plummeted, sabotaging his coverage by ignoring him. But now, people cannot help but watch the video of the pitiful Putin – that’s the Kremlin’s trick to try and return interest in the coughing Putin and his coughing politics,” Gelman told the Daily Beast.
Putin’s popularity among Russian youth has been fading in the past five years. Only 18 percent of Russians younger than 24 approve of Putin’s presidency, according to the Levada Center’s latest social study; 46 percent of women disapprove. Russian hip-hop singer Pasha Technique was more popular on Russian Wikipedia than Putin, Russian news website Afisha Daily reported in January.
“He is an elderly man demanding three babies from every young woman, but that does not boost the birth rate. Russia’s total fertility rate has fallen to approximately 1.37–1.41 children per woman this year,” a Moscow-based obstetrician, Tatyana, told the Daily Beast in an interview. “If somebody in the Kremlin thought that by looking at a coughing Putin, women would like him more, they were wrong.”
A prominent Russian attorney, Ivan Pavlov, said he wouldn’t be surprised if someone is soon facing treason charges over the leaked video. He and his team specialize in defending Russians accused of leaking state secrets.
“Last year alone, our group Pervy Otdel recorded 486 people charged with treason, espionage, and extremist cases, the biggest number so far,” Pavlov told the Daily Beast. “If the Kremlin wanted to boost Putin’s popularity, they would have published him catching a dropped glass or something. Everything about him is either secret or sacred. The mistake, like the leaked video, would ruin somebody’s career or be seen as a state treason – we might see that soon.”
Gennady Gudkov, a former member of Russian parliament, noted that shortly before Putin got undermined by his own entourage, the Kremlin’s polling group, VTsIOM, conducted a spontaneous poll: Only 32.1 percent of respondents said they trusted Putin.
“These spontaneous polls always reveal more truth – his image makers see it,” Gudkov told the Daily Beast. “Of course, the Kremlin’s spiders devour each other, but they don’t need to do much.”
