U.S. intelligence assessments on Iran are giving a different version of events from what President Donald Trump is claiming.
The assessments say Iranian regime change is unlikely at the moment, and although the government has been weakened by the war, it is more hard-line, two sources familiar with the matter told The Washington Post.
After more than two weeks of war, the U.S. and Israel have killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of top military leaders, and have destroyed much of Iran’s navy and missile stockpiles. However, the government that remains—aided by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps security forces—may be emboldened to stand up to Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, the assessments claim.
Additionally, U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf are furious after being targeted by Iran’s retaliatory attacks.
“They started this war for Israel and then left us to face the attacks by ourselves,” one senior Arab official told the Post. “We don’t have a plan for a long war. We need to finish it as soon as possible.”
Trump, one of the sources said, had been briefed on this likelihood before he and Israel started the war. The president continues to receive “very sobering briefings” about what his intelligence agencies are learning, this person added.
“It wasn’t just predictable,” they said. “It was predicted. He was told in advance.”
One European official added, “The region is in flames, and the regime is still standing... The regime is now even more radicalized and more hardened than it was before.”
Portions of the intelligence assessments were reported last week by Reuters, which quoted sources familiar saying the Iranian regime was not in danger of collapsing.
Trump has often claimed his war with Iran has been won, yet has also given conflicting details that it could be won even more.
“We’ve won, let me tell you, we’ve won. You never like to say too early you won, we won... in the first hour it was over,” Trump told a Kentucky crowd last Wednesday.
But he added minutes later: “We don’t want to leave early, do we?... We’ve got to finish the job, right?”
As of last Friday, the Trump administration claimed that U.S. and Israeli forces had struck more than 15,000 targets.
Earlier Monday, it was reported that Trump had thought regime change would be easier.
According to Axios, a source close to the administration said the president “grossly overestimated his ability to topple the regime short of sending in ground troops.”
Later that afternoon, Trump appeared surprised by Iran’s retaliation. “They hit Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait,” he said. “Nobody expected that. We were shocked. ... They fought back.’’
Trump has been vague about what would bring about the end of the war. He has at times called for regime change, but last Friday said the fighting would end “when I feel it, feel it in my bones.”
Under its new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran appears willing to prolong the war. It has halted oil tanker traffic through the vital Strait of Hormuz, causing gas and oil prices to rise, and it continues to retaliate against U.S. allies in the region.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment from the Daily Beast. The Pentagon has previously declined to comment on intelligence.
