A devastating new poll shows President Donald Trump has failed to shift public perception of the economy after six months of trying—and the Iran war is making it worse by the day.
A May survey, conducted by Public First for Politico, found that 53 percent of Americans say the cost of living is the worst they can remember, up from the 46 percent recorded in November. Nearly half still blame Trump for the state of the economy, a figure that has barely moved. And now, a plurality say their finances have actually worsened since Trump took office, including 18 percent of his own 2024 voters.
The numbers landed on the same day the government reported inflation had climbed to its highest level since Trump returned to office, and that the economy grew more slowly in the first quarter than previously estimated. However, the White House insists these are short-term jitters that will turn into long-term gain.
The Iran war is increasingly swamping the White House’s domestic economic messaging. More than 60 percent of Americans—including majorities of both Trump voters and Kamala Harris voters—say the conflict has made things more expensive for them. A majority say Trump has not done enough to protect them from the economic fallout. Even his own base is split: 43 percent of Trump voters say he has done enough to curb costs from the war, while 43 percent say he has not.
Republican strategists are growing anxious. “Trump faces a similar predicament” to Biden, said Kevin Madden, a longtime GOP communications strategist. “As prices rise due to tariff and trade policies and global conflict, the response that it’s a hoax or not true is just a very discordant message given that so many voters are feeling a budget pinch right now.”
The GOP’s fallback strategy—blaming Biden—is not working either. Just 28 percent of Americans say the former president holds full or most of the responsibility for the current economy, compared with nearly half who lay the blame at Trump’s feet.
One Florida-based Republican strategist, granted anonymity to speak candidly, put it plainly. “The sooner the war winds down, the better for Trump when it comes to prospects in the midterms because the price of gas is so intricate in the notion of affordability.”
The White House pushed back. Spokesman Kush Desai said Trump “has been clear about short-term disruptions” and insisted that “as traffic in the Strait of Hormuz normalizes again, Americans will again see gas prices plummet, real wages grow, inflation cool, and trillions in investments continue pouring in.”
Economic experts have already warned that gas prices are likely to remain elevated for at least several more months. Strong majorities of respondents say prices of everyday items like gas, food, and medicine have increased in their area since Trump took office, including most of his own voters.
The strategist laid out what a recovery might look like. “If you can get the gas prices back to pre-conflict levels, and the people in those 16 to 18 House districts that are going to decide this race are feeling good in three or four states, then you’re in much better shape than a lot of people think.”
The White House has been contacted for further comment.
